The run-off for the French presidential election will take place on April 24 (2022). France’s new President is Emmanuel Macron. P.U.T.I.N.: Power Under Tyranny Is Nefarious.
The
runoff election of May 7, 2017, between Macron and Le Pen, has since been well
analyzed and documented in terms of voting
demographics. The following tended to opt for Macron: women, older people,
people with a higher level of education and people with a higher income. By
tendency the following voted more for Le Pen: men, people aged 35-49, people
with less education and a lower income, and people who identify themselves as belonging
to the working class. It is thus the internationally known recipe for
assembling a voter alliance for right-wing populism aimed at making gains in
the working class, when originally the working class would or should have voted
left. At the same time, however, it is the middle class that is increasingly
developing into an insurmountable barrier against right-wing populism. Middle
classes do not necessarily vote left, but middle classes do vote anti-right-wing
populist. The geography of voters in the French presidential runoff of 2017
is also interesting. Above all, north-eastern France (often regions with an
economic downturn) and southern France on the Mediterranean coast voted for Le
Pen. On the other hand, Macron was much more popular in the west and east of
France. Finally, Macron won that 2017 runoff impressively with a total of 66.1%
of the votes.
The
first round of voting on April 10, 2022
In
the first round of this year’s presidential election, Emmanuel Macron received
27.85% and Marine Le Pen 23.15% of the vote. As a result, what was predicted
many times, again came about, namely that there would be a repeat of the runoff
election of 2017: Macron against Le Pen. The (first round) election geography
in 2022 also is very similar to that of 2017: the North and South are tending towards
Le Pen, whereas the West and East to Macron.
However,
the launch of the election campaign for France’s right-wing populists had
started with several troubles. The right-wing populist camp was split between
Le Pen and the far-right Éric Zemmour, who is
considered even more right-wing than Le Pen. Then France’s right was also
challenged by Putin’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine, which was
unleashed on February 24 of this year. Europe’s right-wing populists often
maintained good contacts with the autocrat Putin. In an election campaign
brochure, Le Pen
had herself pictured with Putin. This (“picture of shame”), of course,
caused embarrassment, and Le Pen felt compelled to distance herself from Putin.
While
Macron devoted most of his time to international diplomacy in the weeks
following the start of the invasion, Le Pen made a certain shift in strategy by
addressing the current economic problems facing the working and middle classes,
who are increasingly suffering from high inflation and the associated
consequences. Le Pen could also score
here to a certain extent. In this context, it is interesting to note that the
supporters of the so-called “yellow
vests” (gilets jaunes) partially
chose Le Pen.
Nevertheless,
this first round of elections just missed out on a surprise, because the
left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon
accomplished a remarkable 21.95% of the votes, and only very narrowly did not
make it into the run-off election. Europe’s New
Left is hoping for a certain boost from this. In contrast, France’s
Socialists and Conservatives (Gaullists) did disastrously poorly in the first
round of voting.
Prediction for April 24, 2022
Despite
this déjà-vu of repeating the election match between Macron and Le Pen, many
analysts assume that the outcome will be closer this time. An election victory for Le Pen would come as a
shock for Europe and the EU more particularly. However, Macron can claim most
of the election recommendations for himself.
The prediction here is: Regardless of some expectations of a closer election result,
the “Cordon Sanitaire” will hold up also this time, and the quality of
democracy in France will prevail.
This
means that April 24 is also something like a public referendum for or even more
so against Le Pen. An election victory
of Le Pen can be ruled out factually. This means that the new president will
once again be called Emanuel Macron, which the newest
polls also clearly indicate.
Finally, it should be noted.
David is an Associate Professor for Comparative Political Science at the University of Vienna. His thematic core focuses are quality of democracy in a global perspective, knowledge and innovation in a knowledge economy and knowledge democracy, where David co-created (together with Elias G. Caraynnis) the concept and theory of the Quadruple and Quintuple Helix Innovation Systems. Additional themes of his are interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research in the sciences and arts.