As Donald Trump hits the ground running in his second term as US President, Taiwan faces an increasingly complex geopolitical balancing act. The island nation must contend with Trump's unconventional approach to foreign policy, a deepening alliance between China and Russia, and the need to maintain its own security and sovereignty.
Trump's "America First" Diplomacy
Trump's return to the White House, colloquially known as “Trump 2.0”, has ushered in a dramatic shift in US foreign policy. His "America First" agenda and transactional approach to international relations have raised concerns about the future of US-Taiwan ties and America's commitment to defending the island.
A key aspect of Trump's foreign policy is his tendency to "personalize" international politics. Rather than engaging through traditional multilateral alliances, Trump prefers direct communication with individual leaders. He has referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "friend," claimed a "good relationship" with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and described North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as a "smart guy." This personalized approach extends to US allies as well, often in less flattering terms.
The implications of this strategy for Taiwan are significant. While it may create opportunities for direct dialogue, it also introduces unpredictability into diplomatic relations. Taiwan must carefully navigate this new landscape, balancing the need for US support with the risks of becoming a bargaining chip in broader negotiations.
Shifting US Priorities
Recent statements by US officials have hinted at a potential reevaluation of American security priorities. Vice President JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference marked a departure from traditional US foreign policy rhetoric, particularly regarding support for allies facing threats from China and Russia. This shift suggests that Taiwan can no longer take US backing for granted.
The Sino-Russian "No Limits" Partnership
Complicating matters further is the deepening alliance between China and Russia. United by their shared adversarial stance toward the United States, this partnership has intensified since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While perhaps not based on deep-seated trust or ideological compatibility, this alignment poses significant risks to global security, particularly for Taiwan. There is the hypothesis that Trump is inclined to improve the U.S. relationship with Putin’s Russia, so as to be able to “utilize” Russia against China, and to weaken the Sino-Russian axis.
Some analysts draw parallels between the current Sino-Russian relationship and the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, which set the stage for World War II. While the comparison may be imperfect, it underscores the potential for aggressive actions by emboldened authoritarian powers.
Taiwan's Strategic Response
Faced with these challenges, Taiwan is pursuing a multifaceted strategy to ensure its security and maintain international support:
1. Military Modernization: Taiwan is accelerating its defense capabilities, expanding missile production and upgrading military infrastructure. The goal is to create a more robust deterrent against potential aggression.
2. Economic Diplomacy: To address US concerns about Taiwan's manufacturing dominance, particularly in semiconductors, the island is exploring measures to appease American demands while protecting critical industries. This may include reduced tariffs and streamlined market entry for US businesses in high-tech sectors.
3. Diversifying International Partnerships: Taiwan is strengthening ties with other democratic nations through initiatives like the New Southbound Policy and increased cooperation with European countries on trade and technology agreements—promoting democratic resilience and integrity in the face of heightened military and cyber threats.
4. Engaging with the Trump Administration: Recognizing Trump's preference for personalized diplomacy, Taiwan is exploring ways to establish direct communication channels with the president. This may involve leveraging intermediaries such as prominent Taiwanese-Americans or pro-Taiwan US politicians.
Challenges and Opportunities
Taiwan's efforts to adapt to this new geopolitical reality face several obstacles. Domestic politics complicate increased defense spending, with the opposition-led legislature recently freezing billions in defense expenditures. This move has been criticized by Taiwan's leadership as potentially sending the wrong message to the United States.
The island's fiscal capacity to significantly increase defense spending is also constrained by its relatively low tax revenue. Despite reaching record highs, Taiwan's government faces limitations in allocating substantially more funds to defense without compromising other essential public services or increasing the tax burden on its citizens.
However, Trump's unconventional approach to diplomacy may also create unexpected opportunities. There is speculation that Trump might attempt to broker a "big deal" between China, Taiwan, and the United States to prevent military conflict in the Indo-Pacific. While this possibility introduces both risks and potential benefits, it underscores the need for Taiwan to remain flexible and proactive in its diplomatic efforts.
Ongoing debates surrounding global health threats further complicate the issues facing Taiwan. For instance, recent assessments by German intelligence have reignited discussions about the origins of COVID-19, suggesting a possible laboratory accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. In light of these concerns, Taiwan has been proactively strengthening its biosafety and biosecurity measures, with the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control implementing rigorous management strategies for biological select agents and toxins, and conducting regular inspections of high-containment laboratories to ensure the island's preparedness against potential biohazards
One of the most pressing concerns for Taiwan at the moment may be the risk of their autonomy being sacrificed in a bigger deal arranged between the United States and China. To mitigate this risk, Taiwan may consider adopting a more personalized strategy to engage with Trump directly. This could involve symbolic gestures aimed at appealing to Trump's ego, such as renaming the street where the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) is located to "Donald J. Trump Street." Additionally, the Taiwanese government might consider organizing a competition to design and erect an artistic statue of Trump in Taipei. While these actions may seem unconventional, they align with Trump's preference for personal diplomacy and could potentially strengthen US-Taiwan relations in an era of geopolitical uncertainty.
Based on an article originally published at:
https://ceias.eu/taiwan-faces-rocky-future-under-trump-2-0-and-the-growing-sino-russian-alignment/
Chinese translation of this blog post available here.
About the Authors:
David F. J. Campbell
Founder & Director
David is an Associate Professor for Comparative Political Science at the University of Vienna. His thematic core focuses are quality of democracy in a global perspective, knowledge and innovation in a knowledge economy and knowledge democracy, where David co-created (together with Elias G. Carayannis) the concept and theory of the Quadruple and Quintuple Helix Innovation Systems. Additional themes of his are interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research in the sciences and arts.
Jun Kajee
Jun is a lecturer and adjunct faculty member at Southern Utah University (SUU) affiliated to its concurrent enrollment program addressing the Internationalization of Higher Education in East Asia. He has contributed to the academic field through various publications focused on bilingual education, international program development, and cross-strait relations. His research has received funding from the European Commission, the Erasmus Mundus Association, Salzburg Global, the United States Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, and the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (UN SDSN)